Most scientists agree that the Bird Flu which
has killed many
people as of today breaks down to the following:
Below is summary information about these three prominent subtypes of
avian influenza virus:
Influenza A H5
* Potentially nine different subtypes
* Can be highly pathogenic or low pathogenic
* H5 infections have been documented among humans, sometimes causing
severe illness and death
Influenza A H7
* Potentially nine different subtypes
* Can be highly pathogenic or low pathogenic
* H7 infection in humans is rare, but can occur among persons who have
close contact with infected birds; symptoms may include conjunctivitis
and/or upper respiratory symptoms
Influenza A H9
* Potentially nine different subtypes
* Documented only in low pathogenic form
* Three H9 infections in humans have been confirmed.
The Tipping Point
There are concerns that the latest H5N1 strains
could be resistant
to the antiviral oseltamivir, previously thought effective in fighting
infection. There have been changes to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein
that have been noted in 2005 H5N1 isolates, but had not been seen in
2004 sequence data. The changes are consistent with the possibility
that recently emerging H5N1 viruses may be more infectious for humans.
Bird Flu has been documented in humans which
have come in contact
with infected birds, subsequent human to human infection has been among
close family members or within a close social group.
Infected birds shed virus in saliva, nasal
secretions and feces.
Avian influenza viruses spread among susceptible birds when they have
contact with contaminated nasal, respiratory, and fecal material from
infected birds; however, fecal-to-oral transmission is the most common
mode of spread. Humans become infected from contact with infected
poultry or contaminated surfaces.
All influenza viruses can change,
and therefore it is possible that an avian
influenza virus could
change so that it could infect humans and spread easily from person to
person. Because these viruses do not commonly infect humans, there is
little or no immune protection against them in the human population.
This is the "WHEN" factor and the powers that be
are absolutely
looking at that scenerio.
a worldwide pandemic that has the power to kill up to 100 million
people 7-10 million in the U.S alone.
Estimates have the Bird Flu becoming an epidemic
in the US at 6
months to 2 years. According to the CDC once the epidemic begins
stopping it will be next to impossible.
Heads of vaccine companies have been summoned to
the White House a
late as yesterday and the spread of the infection in birds has now
reached eastern Europe from Asia according to the Associated Press
today.
The government has on hand enough of the
anti-flu drug Tamiflu,
which has been shown to help minimize the effects of the Bird Flu, to
treat 4.3 million people. Manufacturing of $100 million worth of a bird
flu vaccine just began.
Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota
a government
adviser who put together plan for dealing with a all out outbreak of
Bird Flu said, "You plan for the worst-case scenario," he said. "If
it's less than that, thank God."
The strategy, Osterholm said, is, "Don't emphasize what you can buy,
emphasize what you can get your hands on. If it happens tonight, how do
you deal with order?"
For example, health workers would need to wear special masks, known as
N-95 masks (search), to prevent infection while treating patients. Two
U.S. companies produce 90 percent of the world's supply and "we'll run
out overnight," Osterholm said.
Also being considered is the possibility that
Tamiflu will not be
powerful enough to treat someone already sick, but could protect
against illness if given beforehand. So who would get the 4.3 million
doses?
